Personally I feel that it's both.
On one hand, the updates have gotten a lot larger with each new version in recent years adding way more radical new stuff and significantly changing how a typical survival playthrough goes each update. Previously, an update may have added a couple new blocks, 1 new mob or maybe a new mechanic but the gameplay stayed pretty much the same.
On the other hand, Microsoft has already added a dodgy new launcher which you can't really modify as you can't access the files and has to connect to their server each time you play even if you just want to do offline singleplayer. I can definetely see them pushing the ingame store, minecoins and emotes to java in the future just as they did on bedrock (which I believe completely goes against what minecraft is).
